The AFLW S10 meta shaping up
Note: this article is published during AFLW indigenous round, and I have used the names six teams have adopted for the duration of the round. You can read more about indigenous round and those teams here: https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/indigenous/clubs
As a Narrm (Melbourne) supporter it should surprise noone that I have been absolutely hanging out for the Women’s season so that’s where I’m diving into again. We’re still obviously really early, so I’m going to focus mostly on the teams that appear to be separating from the pack two rounds in. As per last week, I’m still building a lot of this data gathering infrastructure as I go, so I’ll have more time to dive into what it tells us as that settles in later in the season.
First I wanted to build upon my very brief look at scoring shots in AFLW last week.
Sydney and Melbourne have very similar profiles for where their scores are being generated and conceded - big positive turnover differentials, and a healthy stoppage differential.
Essendon share a similar, but lesser, turnover differential but they’ve actually got a negative differential on stoppage scoring shots.
Where it gets really interesting though is the Kangaroos. Of their 33 scores they’ve generated 28 of them from turnover, 2 from centre bounces, and just 3 from other stoppages. If we look at their stats more broadly they’re actually in the negative for clearance differential (-0.5 per game) which is a stark difference to the other undefeated sides who make up the 4 best clearance differentials range from +10 (Hawthorn) to +4.5 (Sydney).
Where they’re leading the competition is generating turnovers (1st at +9/game) and uncontested possessions.
The Kangaroos have had 55.5 more uncontested possessions per game than their opponents, with Sydney and Narrm inches behind at +55. The next best is Brisbane a massive step back with 19.5. To me there’s a clear meta forming around uncontested possession, and I think success will be driven by harnessing or countering it.
For Narrm this is something of a return to past success. In their flag-winning season 7 campaign they recorded twice the uncontested possession differential of the next best team.
Even among the three leaders there are significant differences though. Sydney and North are finding a lot more uncontested marks, each about 20% above the league average. They’re also two of the top three teams for retaining uncontested possession from a kick (the third being Kuwarna (Adelaide)). Narrm by comparison find themselves in the bottom 6 for kick retention.
Accordingly, Narrm are below league average in uncontested marks, despite leading the league in possession differential. Where Narrm do stand out is their handball use and pressure. 46% of the Demon’s disposals are by hand, compared to a league average of 39%. Sydney are at league average while the Roos are slightly below. Their handball receives are 15% above the next best (Sydney) and 50% above the league average.
Narrm are also leading the league for opposition disposals per tackle. With the stricter interpretation on holding the ball, a combination of quick hands to release and tackling pressure on the opposition bodes well for them.
One other thing I found in my travels leads me to giving a shout out to Georgie Cleaver. Waalitj Marawar (West Coast) have some real problems structurally, conceding a mark inside 50 from 36% of their opponent’s entries. But, they’ve had 17 defensive one-on-ones and are yet to lose one. This is led by Cleaver who is 0 from 7, leading the league (along with Sydney’s Alice Mitchell). If the Eagles can sort out some of their structures they’ve potentially got an elite pillar to build around and she’s only 20.
